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Prediction for CME (2024-02-06T02:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-02-06T02:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29000/-1
CME Note: Source of this partial halo CME is an M2.2 class flare from AR 3575 (S34W65) peaked at 2024-02-06T02:28Z and followed by an M4.2 class flare. The flare was associated with a large eruption seen in SDO AIA 193/304/171/131 and STEREO EUVI 195 starting at 2024-02-06T02:13Z (ejecta, EUV wave, post-eruptive arcades and circular dimming around them and rising). | Arrival note: Amplification in magnetic field components, with gradual enhancement starting around 2024-02-09T17:30Z, and shock observed starting at 2024-02-09T21:40, with B_total increasing from 7nT to approx. 9.37 nT. Accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed from approx. 387 km/s to approx. 500 km/s and increases in density and temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-09T21:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-08T20:42Z (-5.41h, +7.45h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/02/06 03:15Z
Plane of Sky 1: 08:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SSW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 13:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NNE Direction
POS Difference: 5:40
POS Midpoint: 10:50Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:35

Numeric View/Impact Type: 0
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.63
Travel Time: ~8.63 * 7:35 = 65:27

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-02-08T20:42Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time: 5%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5

Lead Time: 78.18 hour(s)
Difference: 24.97 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-02-06T15:29Z

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